Analysis of Socioeconomic Factors and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the State of São Paulo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12974/2311-8741.2026.14.01Keywords:
Brazil, Climatic change, Carbon dioxide, Emissions, Panel data, STIRPATAbstract
Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and is closely related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. The State of São Paulo stands out due to its economic relevance and pronounced socioeconomic heterogeneity among municipalities, making it an appropriate case for analyzing the relationship between development and environmental emissions. This study aims to examine the socioeconomic determinants of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in the State of São Paulo, using the STIRPAT model estimated through fixed effects regressions. The results indicate that the expansion of the vehicle fleet has a positive and statistically significant impact on CO₂eq emissions. Conversely, industrial value added shows a negative coefficient, suggesting productivity gains and a potential decoupling between industrial growth and emissions in certain places. The findings reveal a strong spatial concentration of emissions among a small number of municipalities within the state.
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